Tuesday, May 8, 2012

Very Narrow Path for Obama to Win in November...

Don't begin to believe the state-run media position that Obama has the election locked up.....there is a very, very narrow light for Obama to get elected, but don't take anything for granted.....The push to fight to get Obama out of office needs start today....

Obama’s Own Narrow Path to Victory

By Chris Stirewalt Published May 08, 2012 FoxNews.com

“…Mr. Soros and our donors recognize the advantages of face-to-face contacts during an election year where voters will see a barrage of advertising from groups they don't recognize.”

-- Statement from America Votes on a $1 million donation from billionaire currency trader George Soros.

Big-money Democrats are swinging into action to fund outside groups aimed at beefing up the already immense operations at the Obama campaign and the Democratic National Committee.

Billionaire currency trader George Soros is upping the ante on the two other Democratic million-dollar men, studio boss Jeffrey Katzenberg and talk show host Bill Maher. Soros is giving $1 million each to American Bridge to the 21st Century and America Votes.

The goal of these groups is entirely in line with what the Obama campaign and DNC are doing: a technologically-driven effort to fund, recruit and equip an army of supporters to get as much of Obama’s 2008 coalition back to the polls as possible.

American Bridge to the 21st Century is the creation of David Brock, and is intended to be a central committee for opposition research for other Democratic groups.

Brock’s team trails Republican candidates to catch gaffes on camera and sifts through their personal histories for potential scandals. The group then provides the findings to reporters and other committees, like the PAC backing President Obama, Priorities USA.

America Votes fills a similar role, but in the work of providing permanent campaign operations for Democrats and allied groups, including unions, personal injury attorneys, pro-choice organizations and environmental and racial activists.

The group has been around since 2004 when Andy Stern, now a key Obama adviser and then-president of the Service Employees International Union, organized the collective to provide ground troops for John Kerry and other Democrats.

Since then, the group has focused on maintaining swing-state personnel ready to be reactivated and fighting voter identification laws.

The goal of these groups is entirely in line with what the Obama campaign and DNC are doing: a technologically-driven effort to fund, recruit and equip an army of supporters to get as much of Obama’s 2008 coalition back to the polls as possible.

It’s a strategy that echoes Obama’s work as a community organizer and a century of union organizing. But the efforts are technology driven, reinforcing an Obamian belief that Democrats can use social media and the Internet to target and persuade key voters in a way that Republicans cannot.

While Democrats are saying this strategy is intended to avoid being overwhelmed by Republican spending on advertising, this isn’t about saving money. It’s a very costly way to run for president -- Obama has the largest and most expensive re-election effort in history.

What this is about is an understanding that with the president trailing among independents and facing problems with the moderate suburbanites who handed him the win in 2008, Obama’s best chance for victory is to maximize the vote from his core.

The establishment press is consumed with the idea that Romney has a “narrow path.” That’s true, in the sense that he daggone well better win Ohio or he won’t win the election. But that’s been true of every Republican since Abe Lincoln.

Obama’s path is somewhat geographically narrow in that he probably needs to win three of the five big Eastern swing states: Pennsylvania, Virginia, North Carolina, Ohio and Florida.

But demographically, it’s ultra-narrow. Team Obama wants to hold down turnout for Romney in the ‘burbs and with blue-collar voters, while simultaneously squeezing out every vote from key Democratic groups: government worker unions, Hispanics, blacks, the poor, etc.

This is not a strategy for a broad victory, but a narrow one, won in Salvadoran neighborhoods in Northern Virginia, black precincts in Philadelphia and a dozen state-capital counties where AFSCME can drive turnout.

Here’s the Obama vision for the cycle: While Obama and allied groups barrage Mitt Romney with negative advertising to hold down the Republican’s margins with independents and suburbanites, Team Obama will be using its own resources and groups like the ones Soros is now funding to recruit, equip and mobilize supporters on the left.

By the fall, Obama hopes to see Democratic intensity up, Republican intensity down and smart-phone wielding campaign workers blanketing the blue precincts of purple states.

If Romney fails in his central task – to prosecute Obama’s economic record – then this kind of narrow, base-versus-base strategy can deliver a victory for Obama.

But, if Romney succeeds in keeping the discussion on the anemic economy and record deficits, there’s no amount of money, technology or organization that can keep Obama in the White House.

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